Comparing Israel's 2009 and 2013 Elections: Impacts of the "Spiral of Silence"

By T M
2014, Vol. 6 No. 06 | pg. 1/3 |

Israeli election campaigns, and especially Likud campaigning under Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu, are known for their emphasis on security threats from within Gaza and the West Bank and, more importantly, from Iran’s nuclear program. By stressing these security threats and proclaiming himself the only possible leader to ensure citizens’ safety, Netanyahu arguably succeeded in silencing economic and social demands in Israel’s 2009 elections.

Surprisingly, even to close observers and polling experts, the appearance of a new political actor, Yair Lapid’s ‘Yesh Atid’1 party, caused a major shift during the Israeli 2012-2013 election campaign. By focusing on socioeconomic issues, and addressing the controversial topic of special treatment for the ultraorthodox, particularly regarding their exemption from military service, former journalist and TV moderator Lapid succeeded in securing 19 of 120 parliamentary Knesset seats, emerging as the second largest party.

Map of Israel

While much of the party’s success has been associated with the person of Lapid and his team of campaigning professionals, considering perceptual effects and especially the climate of opinion may add a valuable theoretical perspective to the discussion. Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann’s research on the ‘Spiral of Silence’2 describes how individuals are more likely to state their opinions if these are along the lines of the mainstream, and less likely to do so if mainstream ideas oppose their views.

Section 2 introduces this theory, which was previously applied to German election campaigning in the 1970s3 and U.S. presidential competition between Reagan and Carter4 in 1980, among others. In order to provide the reader with an idea of the complex Israeli political sphere, section 3 introduces the main political actors and parties, and places them in the broader context of Israeli domestic and foreign politics. In section 4, the ‘spiral of silence’ theory is applied to evaluate whether this theory can explain key differences between the 2009 and 2013 Israeli elections, and the shift in campaign dynamics from security discourse to a discourse on domestic socioeconomic issues. The aim is to evaluate whether there were developments in public opinion that can explain the changes in public statements following the ‘Spiral of Silence’ theory. Finally, section 5 summarizes the findings and critically assesses the usefulness of this analytical approach, offering suggestions for future research. One such analysis, which is excluded due to space limitations, could be to identify how framing,5 priming6 or agenda-setting7 influence public opinion, and to identify which actors are successful in doing so.

The Spiral of Silence Theory

To explain why only few citizens of Hitler’s ‘Third Reich’ openly voiced criticism early on, German political scientist Noelle-Neumann developed a framework of questions to assess opinions expressed in private and public.8 The theory’s core insight is that “one’s perception of the distribution of public opinion motivates one’s willingness to express political opinions.”9 Because people with opposing views increasingly abstain from debate out of fear of isolating themselves, mainstream views are further strengthened. ‘The Spiral of Silence’ then refers to the phenomenon of a ‘spiraling process’ deafening certain individuals and empowering others, thus establishing one dominant opinion.10

Noelle-Neumann concludes that for the individual “not isolating himself is more important than his own judgment,”11 and he is “more frightened of isolation than of committing an error,”12 therefore joining the masses, despite disagreement. Lacking hard evidence of public opinion, people turn to the mass media, which may, for propaganda or other reasons, further shape the dominant opinion, and speed up the ‘Spiral of Silence’.13 In addition to the perception of current public opinion, the perception of future developments determine one’s willingness to express controversial opinions, which makes the results of polls a core element of the theory.14 Only few people, the ‘resistant hardcore’, are "not prepared to conform, to change their opinions, or even to be silent in the face of public opinion,"15 and only listen to the opinions of their own camp.16

The latter are important findings, since Noelle-Neumann attributes a ‘quasi-statistical organ’ or sense to people, which is used to make judgments on current and future public opinion.17 This may be impaired by group polarization, mass media coverage or opinion polling. As mentioned, other theories of mass communication, such as mass media agenda-setting, framing or priming are helpful in evaluating these processes. However, the theory does not apply to all areas of life. While some fields are static, and disregard of e.g. customs leads to immediate risk of isolation, others are ‘disputed’ or ‘subject to change,’ prompting individuals to assess whether the expression of deviating opinions will be accepted by public opinion.18

To ensure a common understanding, public opinion will hereafter be understood as “the aggregation of the views of individuals in society,”19 measured through opinion polls. Jean Jacques Rousseau and John Locke, who coined this idea between the mid-17th and 18th century, already discussed the negative notion of “pressure to conform.”20 Specific to election campaigning, it can be defined as “the judgment, founded on rational discussion, of informed and responsible citizens meting out praise or blame to the government.”21

Background on 2009 and 2013 Israeli Elections

With four elections in ten years, Israel has had a turbulent past of almost constant election campaigning.22 This battle for influence of individuals within parties, parties within the electoral system, and, finally, possible coalition partners in government revolves around central recurring themes.

This section introduces the main political actors of the last two elections, and their alignment to and perception of core issues, in order to analyze the changing dynamics between 2008-2009 and 2012-2013. It is important to note that Israel has a highly proportional electoral system, where each party presents a national list of candidates, voters choose one party and each party receives their proportion of the 120 seats in national parliament or ‘Knesset’ - provided they pass the 2% minimum threshold. Candidates enter the Knesset in the order of the initial party list.23 Palestinians are granted citizenship and thereby voting rights, depending on their residency.24

Israel’s Political Parties

Despite strong polarization vis-à-vis disputed topics, such as the question of a Palestinian state, Israel has a complex political arena given the fact that leading politicians of major parties have often formed break-away factions. The most important parties in 2009 and 2013 and their election results are listed hereafter:252627282930

Figure 1: Main Parties and Election Results in 2009 and 201331

Figure 1

Analysts use various dimensions to ideologically distinguish Israel’s parties. Some distinctions are made according to positions towards specific issues (e.g. the ultraorthodox’ exempt from military service); some are according to traditional left-right orientation (e.g. on liberalization and financial policies), and others according to parties’ approach towards security.32 Security has played a major role ever since the founding of Israel by the UN in 1948, followed by the immediate outbreak of the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948 and subsequent ones in 1967 (‘Six-Day War’) and 1973 (‘Yom Kippur War’). The two Intifadas (Palestinian ‘uprisings’) in 1987 and 2002, the Lebanon Wars in 1982 and 2006, and the 2008 Gaza War, furthered this discourse.33

Further distinction is made between predominantly Palestinian and Jewish parties. Israeli professor Yiftachel introduces another set of categories in his analyses of the 2009 and 2013 elections. His three blocks are 1) colonialist (those opposing a Palestinian State, and in favor of continuing construction of settlements); 2) ethnocratic (those in favor of a two-state solution, but “ambivalent about West Bank settlements,” acknowledging the need to evacuate them, but attempting to preserve territory in adjusted future borders); 3) democratic (those supporting a fully independent Palestine, including occupied territory and East Jerusalem, in addition to equal rights for all in a non-Jewish, ‘state of all citizens’, Israel).34

Suggested Reading from Inquiries Journal

From the 1980s to the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2011 and 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt out-performed the secular opposition movements during that time. Explanations for this are varied, with scholars... MORE»
Advertisement
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a perplexing problem that weighs heavily on the world. For over seventy-five years, blood has been spilt over a piece of land about the size of New Jersey. Numerous attempts have been made to find peace in what is referred to as the Holy Land. Unfortunately, each plan has failed miserably. What is needed now is a fresh examination of the circumstances. Divergent ideas need to be brought to the table for examination... MORE»
With the Great Arab Revolt in 1915, the Hashemite family was catapulted to the forefront of Middle Eastern politics and became the literal symbols of Arab unity. Even after their failure to create a single Arab state, and the defeat of Prince Faisal at the hand of the French at Damascus the Hashemites remained the most legitimate... MORE»
For a country approximately the size of New Jersey, Israel certainly garners its share of widespread international attention. It is scrutinized, dissected, and more often than not, demonized under the microscope of the global... MORE»
Submit to Inquiries Journal, Get a Decision in 10-Days

Inquiries Journal provides undergraduate and graduate students around the world a platform for the wide dissemination of academic work over a range of core disciplines.

Representing the work of students from hundreds of institutions around the globe, Inquiries Journal's large database of academic articles is completely free. Learn more | Blog | Submit

Follow IJ

Latest in Political Science

2022, Vol. 14 No. 09
This interdisciplinary paper investigates the shortfalls and obstacles to success currently facing the climate movement, examining issues represented by the disconnect between policy and electoral politics, the hypocrisy and blatant indifference... Read Article »
2022, Vol. 14 No. 06
Two of the most prevalent protest movements in recent history were the Black Lives Matter and the #StopTheSteal movements. While there are many differences between the two, one of the most prevalent is their use of violence. Whereas the BLM movement... Read Article »
2022, Vol. 14 No. 05
Strong linkages between autocrats and the military are often seen as a necessary condition for authoritarian regime survival in the face of uprising. The Arab Spring of 2011 supports this contention: the armed forces in Libya and Syria suppressed... Read Article »
2022, Vol. 14 No. 04
During the summer of 2020, two fatal shootings occurred following Black Lives Matter protests. The first event involved Kyle Rittenhouse in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and the second Michael Reinoehl in Portland, Oregon. Two shootings, each committed by... Read Article »
2022, Vol. 14 No. 02
In popular international relations (IR) theory, knowledge production is often dismissed as an objective process between the researcher and the empirical world. This article rejects this notion and contends that the process of knowledge production... Read Article »
2022, Vol. 14 No. 01
This article explores the political relationship between nation-building, ethnicity, and democracy in the context of Ethiopia. It traces Ethiopia's poltical history, explores the consequential role ethnicity has played in the formation of the modern... Read Article »
2022, Vol. 14 No. 01
The study examines the degree to which Xi Jinping has brought about a strategic shift to the Chinese outward investment pattern and how this may present significant political leverage and military advantages for China in the Indian Ocean Region (... Read Article »

What are you looking for?

FROM OUR BLOG

How to Select a Graduate Research Advisor
What is the Secret to Success?
Presentation Tips 101 (Video)