Can the U.S. win the war in Afghanistan?

IV: Analysis/Prospects for Success

By taking a critical look at how this conflict has reached the point where it is today, it seems clear that our methods have suffered from an unclear long-term strategy and a failure to effectively engage either the local population or the domestic government in a way that promotes a durable peace. The effort has been underfunded, both from a military and economic standpoint, but also from an intellectual and political standpoint. It seems unlikely that the U.S. would be able to achieve its minimum goals if the current effort continues without undergoing significant changes.

Whether or not we reach our goals will not depend on our capabilities; rather, it will depend on how President Obama decides to implement his new strategy, and on  precisely what that strategy entails. Obama has made a clear commitment to revert our focus from Iraq back to Afghanistan, where it began. He has ordered the deployment of more troops, more resources, and more dialogue aimed at securing the region. These are all elements that are needed, and would be vital to any successful outcome.

The outcome will also depend on Obama’s ability to create meaningful partnerships with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The relationship over the past eight years has been inefficient and often strained. Nevertheless, both President Karzai and President Zardari reacted positively to Obama’s recent declaration of a new regional strategy,27 and evidence suggest Obama will be more effective at establishing positive international relationships than his predecessor.

Many challenges still exist which must be overcome if the U.S. is to reach its goals and be successful in Afghanistan. The United States is nevertheless at a turning point; by refocusing and reorganizing our strategy, as is happening now, it is entirely feasible that we will realize a long fought success in the coming years.

1.) Katzman, Kenneth. Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy. Rep. no. ???? RL30588. Congressional Research Service, 2009: 2.

2.) Cordesman, Anthony H., and Arleigh A. Burke. Winning in Afghanistan: Creating Effective Afghan Security Forces. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2009: iii.

3.) "The World Factbook - Afghanistan." 19 Mar. 2009. Central Intelligence Agency. 23 Mar. 2009.

4.) "Afghanistan." U.S. Department of State. 2009.. 25 Mar. 2009 .

5.) U.S. Department of Defense. Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan. 2009.

6.) Gates, Robert M. "Secretary Gates On Afghanistan Mission, Iraq Exit." Interview with National Public Radio. All Things Considered. NPR. 10 Mar. 2009.

7.) Ackerman, Spencer. "Gates: Afghans, Not Just U.S. Troops, Needed to Win War." The Washington Independent 27 Jan. 2009.

8.) Pres. Barack Obama. "A New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan." 27 Mar. 2009. The New York Times. .

9.) Cordesman, Anthony H., and Arleigh A. Burke. Winning in Afghanistan: Creating Effective Afghan Security Forces. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2009: ii-iii.

10.) "2008 marks deadliest year for U.S. troops in Afghanistan." CNN 11 Sept. 2008.

11.) Filkins, Dexter. "Afghan Civilian Deaths Rose 40 Percent in 2008." The New York Times 17 Feb. 2009.

12.) Cordesman, Anthony H., and Arleigh A. Burke. Winning in Afghanistan: Creating Effective Afghan Security Forces. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2009: 1.

13.) Ibid, 26.

14.) Drew, Christopher. "Drones Are Weapons of Choice in Fighting Qaeda." The New York Times 16 Mar. 2009.

15.) Pres. Barack Obama. "A New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan." 27 Mar. 2009. The New York Times. .

16.) Dobbins, James. Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. Rep. no. CT-318. RAND Corporation, 2009: 1.

17.) "US rethinks Afghanistan strategy." BBC News 27 Mar. 2009.

18.) Sieff, Martin. "Obama takes war to Afghanistan, Pakistan." United Press International 27 Mar. 2009.

19.) Ignatius, David. "A New Dawn in Pakistan." The Washington Post 27 Mar. 2009.

20.) Katzman, Kenneth. Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy. Rep. no. ???? RL30588. Congressional Research Service, 2009: 12.

21.) Snow, Donald. National Security for a New Era (3rd Edition). New York: Longman, 2008: 373-375.

22.) Pres. Barack Obama. "A New Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan." 27 Mar. 2009. The New York Times. .

23.) Orend, Brian. "War." Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 28 July 2005. Stanford University. 29 Mar. 2009 .

24.) Ibid

25.) Combs, Cindy C. Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century (5th Edition). New York: Longman, 2009: 48.

26.) Ibid, 59.

27.) Perlez, Jane. " Pakistan’s President Praises Obama and Offers New Concession to the Opposition." The New York Times 28 Mar. 2009.