A River for Freedom: The Itaipu Hyrdoelectric Project and the Democratization of Paraguay

For Paraguay, the first phase was very short – although there were irregularities, democratic elections occurred in May 1989, just three months after General Rodriguez took power. The goals of the new government had little to do with democratization, however – even Rodriguez admitted that the coup’s objectives were “the defence of the dignity of the armed forces and the full and total reunification of the Colorado Party.” Indeed, the 1989 election was criticized by the international community and resulted in a predictable win for the Colorados. However, elections in 1991 and 1993 resulted in losses at the municipal level and a very narrow presidential win, showing that Paraguayans were ready for change and were willing to use their increasing democratic rights to move towards it.17

Recent Developments and Future Prospects

The past year has brought important strides in the movement towards democracy in Paraguay. After 61 years of Colorado Party rule, the people of Paraguay held a free and fair election in which a member of the Patriotic Alliance for Change (a coalition of leftist parties and movements) was elected to the presidency. Fernando Lugo, a community organizer and former bishop, gained 41% of the vote in an election characterized as “as much a reflection of the Colorado’s costly mistakes as it was of Lugo’s success.” The former president, Nicanor Duarte, tried to amend the constitution to allow himself to run again (he had reached his term limit); this attempt failed, and caused his popularity to plummet from a former 70% in 2003-2005 to only 5% by April 2008. After he backed his former education minister for the presidency, a rift formed in the Colorado Party –a vote for his endorsee was seen as a vote for him, so many Colorados chose to vote for Lugo instead.18

In a sense, Lugo is similar to Barack Obama. He is seen as a reformer who will actually keep his campaign promises (unlike previous politicians), because as a “man of God” he actually cares about the poor and oppressed people of Paraguay. He committed himself to a platform of anti-corruption, social and economic change (including reforming the unequal distribution of land in the country), and national sovereignty, the latter being focused primarily on renegotiation of Paraguay’s hydroelectric projects with Brazil and Argentina – including the Itaipú dam. Lugo believes that the larger countries took advantage of Paraguay, and that control of these massive projects needs to be reevaluated.19

Unlike Obama, however, Lugo has a fairly weak base of support in the populace and in government. The government is still dominated by members of the Colorado party, and Colorados still hold a plurality of seats in Paraguay’s Congress. His party is “ideologically fragmented,” and he will have to work closely with other parties in order for his reforms to be successful. However, Lugo has significant political capital due to his popular support, and his actions over the next five years have the potential to forever change Paraguay into a true democracy.

Conclusion

The Itaipú hydroelectric project sent a shock through the Paraguayan economy, causing economic and social unrest and empowering the militantes to implement their plan to succeed Stroessner. While Itaipú was an important factor in creating the conditions for democratization, it was neither necessary nor sufficient to end the Stroessner regime, weaken the Colorado Party, or begin the process of democratization; in a vacuum, Itaipú would have changed little in the political sphere. However, its economic impact was combined with a number of external forces: the wave of democratization in Latin America, pressure from the United States, the economic problems of the region, and the militantes’ desire for power. Together, these were able to break the second-longest dictatorship of the 20th century20 and begin the long process of democratization in Paraguay. While this process is by no means over, the outcome of the 2008 elections are promising, and there is excellent potential for Paraguay to have a truly democratic future.

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Selected bibliography

Abente, Diego. "Stronismo, Post-Stronismo and the Prospects for Democratization in Paraguay." Working paper. Kellogg Institute for International Studies. University of Notre Dame, March 1989. http://nd.edu/~kellogg/publications/workingpapers/WPS/119.pdf (accessed February 15, 2009).

Baer, Werner, and Luis Breuer. "From Inward- to Outward-Oriented Growth: Paraguay in the 1980s." Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 28, no. 3 (Fall 1986): 125-140.

Brun, Diego Abente. "'People Power' In Paraguay." Journal of Democracy 10, no. 3 (1999): 93-100. http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v010/10.3abente-brun.html (accessed April 5, 2009).

– – –. “Uruguay and Paraguay: An Arduous Transition.” In Latin America: Its Problems and Its Promise, edited by Jan Knippers Black, 556-579. 4th ed. USA: Westview Press, 2005.

Díaz, Natalia Ruiz. "POLITICS-PARAGUAY: Twenty Years of Transition." Inter Press Service, February 2, 2009. http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=45648 (accessed February 14, 2009).

Huntington, Samuel P. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.

Kelly, Philip, and Thomas Whigham. “Democracy in Bolivia and Paraguay: A Comparison.” In Assessing Democracy in Latin America, 293-303. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1998.

Lambert, Peter. "A New Era for Paraguay." NACLA Report on the Americas 41, no. 4 (July 2008): 5-8. Academic Search Alumni Edition, EBSCOhost (accessed April 5, 2009).

– – –. "Assessing the Transition." In The Transition to Democracy in Paraguay, edited by Peter Lambert and Andrew Nickson, 200-213. Latin American Studies Series. Ipswich, U.K.: Macmillan Press Ltd, 1997.

– – –. "The Regime of Alfredo Stroessner." In The Transition to Democracy in Paraguay, edited by Peter Lambert and Andrew Nickson, 3-23. Latin American Studies Series. Ipswich, U.K.: Macmillan Press Ltd, 1997.

Linz, Juan J, and Alfred Stepan. "Toward Consolidated Democracies ." Journal of Democracy 7, no. 2 (1996): 14-33. doi:10.1353/jod.1996.0031 (accessed April 6, 2009).

Lopez, Angelina. "The Crossroads of Past and Present: Stroessner’s Longevity in Paraguay as a Product of Supports for his Hybrid Regime." Macalester College Undergraduate Journal of Political Science 3 (Spring 2006): 41-51. http://www.macalester.edu/politicalscience/ Journals/pisigmaalpha.s06.pdf (accessed April 5, 2009).

Mora, Frank O. "From Dictatorship to Democracy: The US and Regime Change in Paraguay, 1954-1994." Bulletin of Latin American Research 17, no. 1 (January 1998): 59-79.

Nickson, R. Andrew. "The Itaipú Hydro-Electric Project: The Paraguayan Perspective." Bulletin of Latin American Research 2, no. 1 (October 1982): 1-20.

Roett, Riordan. "Paraguay After Stroessner." Foreign Affairs 68, no. 2 (Spring 1989): 124-142. Business Source Premier, EBSCOhost (accessed April 5, 2009).

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1.) Peter Lambert, "The Regime of Alfredo Stroessner," in The Transition to Democracy in Paraguay, ed. Peter Lambert and Andrew Nickson, Latin American Studies Series (Ipswich, U.K.: Macmillan Press Ltd, 1997), 18.

2.) Diego Abente Brun, "Uruguay and Paraguay: An Arduous Transition," in Latin America: Its Problems and Its Promise, ed. Jan Knippers Black, 4th ed. (USA: Westview Press, 2005), 568.

3.) Lambert, “The Regime,”

4.) Brun, “Uruguay and Paraguay,” 571.

5.) Lambert, “The Regime,” 9.

6.) Werner Baer and Luis Breuer, "From Inward- to Outward-Oriented Growth: Paraguay in the 1980s," Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 28, no. 3 (Fall 1986): 126.

7.) Ibid, 127.

8.) Lambert, “The Regime,” 10.

9.) Ibid.

10.) Ibid, 11; Baer 132-34.

11.) The official inflation rate dropped to 13% in 1981, but there is some question as to the reality of that number.

12.) Brun, “Uruguay and Paraguay,” 570.

13.) Lambert, “The Regime,” 17.

14.) Ibid, 18.

15.) Ibid, 18-19; Brun, “Uruguay and Paraguay,” 573

16.) Peter Lambert, "Assessing the Transition," in The Transition to Democracy in Paraguay, 201; Juan J Linz and Alfred Stepan, "Toward Consolidated Democracies," Journal of Democracy 7, no. 2 (1996)

17.) Ibid., 201-203

18.) Peter Lambert, "A New Era for Paraguay," NACLA Report on the Americas 41, no. 4 (July 2008): 5-6.

19.) Ibid, 8.

20.) Stroessner was in power from 1954-1989; Fidel Castro ruled Cuba from 1959-2008.